Update on Gene Arensberg

Good Morning Got Gold Followers,

As you know Gene has been absent from his posting desk here at Got Gold.  He has been gravely ill for the past 2 months.  It is my hope and prayer that he will return to his desk in the future.  I know his misses his communication with all of you.  Keep him in you prayers.

Sincerely,

S. Colette Chapman

Assistant to Gene Arensberg

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What the Strong Dollar Does to Yellow and Black Gold and Why We're Seeing Green

1000 frank holmes
Frank Holme, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors writes:

The United States is doing better than it has in years. Jobs growth is up, unemployment is down, our manufacturing sector carries the rest of the world on its shoulders like a wounded soldier and the World Economic Forum named the U.S. the third-most competitive nation, our highest ranking since before the recession.

As heretical as it sounds, there’s a downside to America’s success, and that’s a stronger dollar. For the 12-month period, our currency has seen a 1.1-standard deviation move, which has put pressure on two commodities that we consider our lifeblood at U.S. Global Investors: gold and oil.

It's worth noting that we’ve been here before. In October 2011, a similar correction occurred in energy, commodities and resources stocks based on European and Chinese growth fears. But international economic stimulus measures helped raise market confidence, and many of the companies we now own within these sectors benefited. Between October 2011 and January 2012, Anadarko Petroleum rose 58 percent; Canadian Natural Resources, 20 percent; Devon Energy, 15 percent; Cimarex Energy, 15 percent; Peyto Exploration & Development, 15 percent; and Suncor Energy, 10 percent.

Brian Hicks

Granted, we face new challenges this year that have caused market jitters—Ebola and ISIS, just to name a couple. But we’re confident that once the dollar begins to revert to the mean, a rally in energy and resources stocks might soon follow. Brian Hicks, portfolio manager of our Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), notes that he’s been nibbling on cheap stocks ahead of a potential rally, one that, he hopes, mimics what we saw in late 2011 and early 2012.

A repeat of last year's abnormally frigid winter, though unpleasant, might help heat up some of the sectors and companies that have underperformed lately.

September Was the Cruelest Month

On the left side of the chart below, you can see 45 years’ worth of data that show fairly subdued fluctuations in gold prices in relation to the dollar. On the right side, by contrast, you can see that the strong dollar pushed bullion prices down 6 percent in September, historically gold’s strongest month. This move is unusual also because gold has had a monthly standard deviation of ±5.5 percent based on the last 10 years’ worth of data.

Continue reading "What the Strong Dollar Does to Yellow and Black Gold and Why We're Seeing Green" »

Warning: Market Correction This Week… Did You See the Opportunity?

1000 frank holmes
Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors, writes:

While stocks fell around the world this week amid growing concerns over global economic growth, Europe’s slowdown can’t stop emerging market population growth that drives long-term commodity demand. If the short-term market volatility concerns you, a solution is short-term tax-free municipal bonds. Check out the 5 Reasons Why.

Putting Capital to Work in Commodities for the Long Term

This week we saw a continued selloff in energy stocks and a slump in commodity prices, specifically oil. In light of this, I’ve highlighted some key points I made during last week’s webcast that might offer our investors some clarity and insight into our management strategy when such market nervousness occurs.

One of the main drivers of commodity demand, as I often point out, is PMI, or purchasing managers’ index:

PMI: Commodities’ Crystal Ball

You look at the stock market as a precursor to economic activity six months out. If you’re looking at commodities, you must be looking at PMIs.

JPMorgan-Global-Manufacturing-Purchasing-Managers-Index

What our research has shown is that there is a 60- to 80-percent probability of commodities and commodity stocks rising when the global PMI’s one-month reading is above the three-month trend. When its one-month is below the three-months, there is a high probability of these sectors and stocks falling over the next six months.

Continue reading "Warning: Market Correction This Week… Did You See the Opportunity?" »

We’re in an Economic Neverland

Dan Steinhart, Managing Editor, The Casey Report, brings us an essay from Bill Bonner:

He’s written a wonderful essay explaining why suppression of interest rates will, without question, wreck the economy.

What I like best about Bill is how he explains things. It’s never some fuzzy academic theory. He draws everything back to the real world.

For instance, Bill doesn’t know if he should invest $400,000 to upgrade some apartments. Sure, it looks like a good idea, but only because borrowing money costs virtually nothing right now. Everything looks like a good investment when you can finance it with free money. That’s the problem.

This piece is from Bonner & Partners Family Office’s Strategic Review, Bill’s premium newsletter. My thanks to them for allowing me to share it for free, exclusively to Casey subscribers.

Bill has much to say, so I’ve split his essay into two parts. Tune in for Part 2 next week.  

Continue reading "We’re in an Economic Neverland" »

Koos Jansen: China aims to exceed U.S. in gold reserves

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The president of the China Gold Association, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen discloses today, argues that China should accumulate gold reserves greater than those of the United States because gold is a strategic asset, money without counterparty risk.

The association's president, Song Xin, adds that a "gold bank" should be established by China "to break the barrier between the commodity and monetary world. It can further help us acquire reserves and give us more say and control in the gold market."

Jansen's report is headlined "China Aims for Official Gold Reserves at 8,500 Tonnes" and it's posted at Bullion Star here:

Continue reading "Koos Jansen: China aims to exceed U.S. in gold reserves" »

Greenspan: Gold is the ultimate money and China well might want more

1000 greenspanGolden Rule: Why Beijing Is Buying

Alan Greenspan, Foreign Affairs, Council on Foreign Relations, New York writes:
Monday, September 29, 2014

If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country's currency could take on unexpected strength in today's international financial system.

It would be a gamble, of course, for China to use part of its reserves to buy enough gold bullion to displace the United States from its position as the world's largest holder of monetary gold. (As of spring 2014, U.S. holdings amounted to $328 billion.) But the penalty for being wrong, in terms of lost interest and the cost of storage, would be modest. For the rest of the world, gold prices would certainly rise, but only during the period of accumulation. They would likely fall back once China reached its goal.

The broader issue -- a return to the gold standard in any form -- is nowhere on anybody's horizon. It has few supporters in today's virtually universal embrace of fiat currencies and floating exchange rates.

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5 Reasons Why Short-Term Municipal Bonds Make Sense Now

1000 frank holmes
Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, U.S. Global Investors writes:

Last week Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen insisted that record-low interest rates will stay as they are for a "considerable time." So what does that mean for bond investors? Many people realize that rising interest rates affect yields and prices, but what others might not know is that if you stick closely to short-term, investment-grade debt securities-the very kind our Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX) invests in-the impact of such a rate hike is not as dramatic as some investors might think.

As you can see in the chart below, NEARX has been a steady grower over the years, in times of rising and falling interest rates as well as extreme market downturns. In fact, it's taken nearly a decade and a half for the S&P 500 Index to surpass NEARX using a hypothetical $100,000 investment back in June 2000.

Think of NEARX, then, as the emotionally-stable, no-drama fund.

Near-Term Tax Free Fund vs. S&P 500 Index
click to enlarge

Continue reading "5 Reasons Why Short-Term Municipal Bonds Make Sense Now" »

Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for September 26

CFTC logoHOUSTON – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data for the disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) and Legacy “COT” reports for the week ending September 26, 2014.  Our recap of the net positioning for large reporting futures traders is below, compared to the prior week’s data. 

Source: CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver prices.  The positioning and price data is as of the close of trade in New York on Tuesday, September 23, 2014.

20140926 DCOT recap

In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting “longer” and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

Continue reading "Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for September 26" »

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Tuesday, October 21, 2014

True Gold's North Kao Deposit to generate over US$118 million in free cash flow to Karma

Phase II Expansion Scenario Adds Average of ~118,000 ounces gold per year for 2.5 years VANCOUVER, B.C. – True Gold Mining Inc. (TSX-V; TGM) (“True Gold” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that the North Kao Deposit (“North Kao”) will generate an additional US$118Min after-tax free cash flow to the Karma Gold Project (“Karma”).As a result of its high gold grades, low capital costs, and synergies to be realized by sharing future infrastructure, North Kao yields

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Millrock Enters Letter of Intent on the Rio Sonora Project, Mexico

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, October 20, 2014- Millrock Resources Inc. (TSX-V: MRO) (Millrock) announces that it has entered into a letter of intent with a third party in respect of theRio Sonora projectin northern Sonora, Mexico, pursuant to which the third party will fund a $250,000 initial exploration program and may subsequently earn into a joint venture on the project.

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Sunday, October 12, 2014

China now takes nearly all world gold production, Shanghai exchange chief confirms

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Chinas annual non-government gold consumption has been officially confirmed as having reached 2,000 tonnes, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports. That figure is close to annual world gold mine production. The figure, Jansen writes, was repeated several times by the chairman of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Xu Luode, in an address to the London Bullion Market Association conference in Singapore in June.

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Saturday, October 11, 2014

Charles Nenner: Scary Deflation on Horizon, Gold Update and Nuclear War

Economist Charles Nenner is not bullish on the global economy. Nenner says, “We should have a nice quarter until the end of the year, and next year, we should start weakening again. We had a normal business up move. The problem is the GDP never got up much above 3%. So, now we are going down from 3%, and that is kind of scary because I still see a lot of deflation on the horizon. That is

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Thursday, October 09, 2014

Rickards: Fundamental U.S. Economy Is Very Weak

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) –- West Shore Group Chief global Strategist Jim Rickards discusses Fed Chair Janet Yellen, gold and concerns over inflation. He speaks on Market Makers. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Endeavour Silver Produces 1,634,294 Oz Silver and 14,118 Oz Gold (2.5 Million Oz Silver Equivalents) in the Third Quarter, 2014

VANCOUVER, BC--(Marketwired - October 09, 2014) -Endeavour Silver Corp.(TSX:EDR)(NYSE:EXK)(FRANKFURT:EJD) reports silver and gold production for the Third Quarter, 2014. The Company owns and operates three silver-gold mines in Mexico: the Guanaceví mine in Durango state and the Bolañitos and El Cubo mines in Guanajuato state.

Continue reading "Endeavour Silver Produces 1,634,294 Oz Silver and 14,118 Oz Gold (2.5 Million Oz Silver Equivalents) in the Third Quarter, 2014" »

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Millrock Announces Increase In Non-Brokered Private Placement

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, September 30, 2014- Millrock Resources Inc. (TSXV:MRO) (“Millrock” or the “Company”) reports it has increased the non-brokered private placement announced on September 22, 2014. The Company has received strong interest from parties that, if their subscriptions are accepted in full by Millrock, will become “reporting insiders” as defined under National Instrument 55-104. The financing will now consist of up to 80,000,000 units at a price of $0.05 per unit for gross proceeds of up

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Monday, September 29, 2014

CONSTANTINE INTERSECTS 89 METERS OF 5.0% ZINC, 0.8% COPPER, 21 G/T SILVER AND 0.3 G/T GOLD AT THE PALMER VMS PROJECT, ALASKA

Vancouver, BC – Constantine Metal Resources Ltd. (TSX Venture – CEM) (Constantine or the Company) is pleased to provide an update on the 10,000 meter drill program on the Palmer VMS Project, Alaska (“Palmer” or “Project”) that is host to a 4.75 million tonne inferred resource estimate grading 1.84% copper, 4.57% zinc, 0.28 g/t gold and 29 g/t silver*. Step-out drilling continues to make important expansions to the South Wall Zone (“South Wall”) both laterally and to

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Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Real Reason Venezuela Repatriated its Gold

GGR Comment: In our opinion an example of the real reason Venezuela repatriated its gold back to Caracas is the story below and many more like it that will be coming at them from the ICSID. Chavez didn’t want his gold confiscated by an international tribunal to pay aggrieved companies, after he expropriated these companies’ Venezuela assets and businesses. Gold Reserve says awarded $740.3 mln in Venezuela Brisas arbitration (Reuters) - The International Centre for Settlement of

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Precipitate Drills Discovery Hole Containing 13.4 g/t Gold Over 5.0 Metres within 18.0 Metres of 4.5 g/t at Ginger Ridge

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Sept. 23, 2014) -Precipitate Gold Corporation(the Company or Precipitate) (TSX VENTURE:PRG) is pleased to announce results for its maiden drill program at the Ginger Ridge Zone within the Companys 100% owned Juan de Herrera project in the Tireo Gold Camp in the Dominican Republic. The six-hole 1,193 metre (m) diamond drill program targeted surface geochemical anomalies and near-surface geophysical induced polarization (IP) anomalies in the central and southern areas of the Ginger Ridge

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Monday, September 22, 2014

They Do Ring A Bell At The Top: Alibaba Proves Wall Street Is Off Its Rocker

David Stockman writes: They do ring a bell at the top. On Friday Alibaba gained $65 billion of market capin 5 minutes! And that was on top of the $170 billion IPO price—-a valuation that was not all that shabby to begin with. In fact, BABAweighed in for the opening bellat 20X its$8.6 billion in sales. My Alibaba US $2.5-10 /Piece( FOB Price) 800 Pieces(Min. Order) 30000 Piece/Pieces per Month(Supply capacity) Well,the above red hotmultiple was not

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Columbus Gold Places 9.9% Stake with Prominent US Investor in Amended PP

Vancouver, BC, Canada, September 22, 2014. Columbus Gold Corporation (CGT: TSX-V, CBGDF: OTCQX)is pleased to announce that a prominent US resource investor has agreed to acquire approximately 9.9% of Columbus Gold, representing the entire private placement on amended terms from those announced on September 2, 2014, which include a reduction in the size and price of the offering. Overall, the amended placement is more favourable to Columbus Gold and its shareholders by eliminating the dilutive warrant component,

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Millrock Announces Financing and Share Consolidation

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, September 22, 2014- Millrock Resources Inc. (TSXV:MRO) (“Millrock” or the “Company”) announces that it plans to raise gross proceeds of up to $3,500,000 through the sale of 70,000,000 units (the “Units”) priced at $0.05 per Unit. Each Unit consists of one common share and one share purchase warrant (the “Warrants”), with each Warrant entitling the holder thereof to purchase one additional common share at a price of $0.07 per share for a period of

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The Tribute the World Pays to the Empire

International monetary reserves set a new high mark early this month: they now amount to a bit more that $12,000,000,000,000 dollars. ($12 trillion dollars, when we calculate the value of all the reserves in dollars. The largest part of reserves is in dollars; the rest is split up into euros, pounds sterling, yen and Swiss francs.) What does this colossal number mean? Reserves measure the quantity ofcreditwhich the exporting countries of the world have granted to countries

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Sunday, September 21, 2014

A Few Silver Related Graphs

Any serious silver investor knows that there was an attempt to break silver down through its implied support on Friday, Sep 19. In short term tick charts the sell raid took on a look something like this. Take a look at the COMEX open interest graph for silver futures below.The Key point here is that there is an extremely high open interest at the same time that silver is probing its implied lows. In essence there is

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Saturday, September 20, 2014

Chinese Gold Demand 41t in week 37, 1331t YTD

The Shanghai International Gold Exchange Is Launched! Koos Jansen is an intrepid observer of the precious metals biz, especiallyin Asia. He writes: Where to begin. Much has happened this week in the Chinese gold market; on wednesday the Shanghai Gold Exchange(SGE) releasedmultiplerule books written in English describing every detail on the workings of the SGEand itsbrand new subsidiary theShanghai International Gold Exchange(SGEI). Finally the world canread everything about the Chinese exchange that is strongestforce in the physical

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Japan government cuts economic view, warns of stalling consumption

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japans government cut its overall economic assessment for the first time in five months as private consumption is struggling to recover from the slump caused by Aprils sales tax hike, clouding the outlook for a sustained recovery. The government on Friday cut its view on private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, saying that consumer spending is seen pausing although a pick-up trend remains intact. The assessment followed a run

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Suchecki - Gold Bottoming?

The Perth Mints Bron Suchecki wrote on the 18th: This morning I recorded an interview with Al Korelin for his weekend show which should be up Saturday US time. Al talked about how bad the sentiment was in the gold market right now, the worst he has ever seen, and Id have to agree.

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Eric Sprott: Get Your Money ‘Out of Banks and into Something Tangible’

Henry Bonner in a recent call with Eric Sprott, founder of Sprott Inc., he said he was still buying physical gold -and planned to keep buying it for as long as he could. The gold shortage that he talked aboutin our May interviewis still there, and economically, things aren’t getting better. “When people finally decide they want to buy gold, there probably won’t be any gold,” he explained.

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Friday, September 19, 2014

True Gold receives all permits for the Karma Gold Project

VANCOUVER, B.C. – True Gold Mining Inc. (TSX-V; TGM) (“True Gold” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that the Burkina Faso Council of Ministers has approved the issuance of exploitation permits (equivalent to mining permits) for the Kao and Nami deposits at the Karma Gold Project. The Kao and Nami exploitation permits are extensions of the existing Karma Exploitation Permit received in January, 2014, which includes the development of the Goulagou I, Goulagou II and Rambo

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Thursday, September 18, 2014

Bayfield Ventures Rainy River Gold-Silver Project Drill Program Begins in NW Ontario

Vancouver, BC - Bayfield Ventures Corp. (TSX-V:BYV)(OTC Pink:BYVVF) (Frankfurt:B4N) is pleased to announce that its drill program has commenced on its Rainy River gold-silver project in north-western Ontario. Bayfields flagship Burns Block property is surrounded by New Golds (TSX: NGD) Rainy River project and adjoins the immediate east of New Golds multi-million ounce ODM17 gold-silver deposit and adjoins the immediate west of New Golds expanding Intrepid gold-silver deposit. Rainy River District Gold Zones:http://www.bayfieldventures.com/i/maps/BYV-Burns-Gold-Zones-NOV-2012.jpg The Company will focus

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China opens gold market to foreigners amid price ambition

Thank you GATA for bringing this article to our attention: From Bloomberg: China will give foreign investors direct access to its gold market for the first time today as the biggest-consuming nation seeks to exert more influence over prices while boosting the yuans global use. The Shanghai Gold Exchange will start trading contracts in the citys free-trade zone that will be linked to its domestic spot market and available to about 40 international members including Goldman Sachs

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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Pilot Gold to be added to the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index

Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG - TSX) (“Pilot Gold” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that as at the close of trading on Friday, September 19, 2014, Pilot Gold will be added to the SP/TSX SmallCap Index. The SP/TSX SmallCap Index serves the dual purpose as a benchmark and as an investable index, and is designed to capture the investment opportunity set for small cap investment managers. Currently there are approximately 210 TSX listed companies which compose

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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Gartman Letter cites Koos Jansen and Gold Newsletter on Chinese gold demand

GATA shared Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letters, latest: Regarding Chinese gold demand, which we wrote about yesterday, it is open to debate and our old friend, Brien Lundin of the Jefferson Companies in New Orleans, wrote to share his insights. Weve chosen to share them further with our readers, with his approval. Brien wrote: * * * Hi, Dennis: In your letter this morning, you noted that Chinese gold demand was recently reported to be down about

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Doubling Down on Inflation

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., writes: Fridaysrelease of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice. Instead the alarm clock was stuffed under the pillow and Wall Street kept sleeping. The miss was so epic in fact (the 142,000 jobs created was almost 40% below the consensus estimate) that the top analysts on Wall Street did their best to tell us

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No spoofing (really) Adoption of Rule 575 (“Disruptive Practices Prohibited”)

Effective September 15, 2014, The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (CME), the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. (CBOT), the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX), and the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX), notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the adoption of Rule 575 (“Disruptive Practices Prohibited”). The Exchanges will also adopt the CME Group Market Regulation Advisory Notice RA1405-5, which provides the text of Rule 575 as well as additional regulatory guidance on

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Monday, September 15, 2014

Koos Jansen: China again buys the dip in gold and silver gets scarcer

Declining gold prices again have pushed demand up on the Shanghai Gold Exchange as China buys the dips, while silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to fall, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today. His analysis is posted at Bullion Star here: Chinese Gold Demand 39t In Week 36, YTD 1290t RobustChinese gold demand is keeping up its pace. Chinese wholesale demand, measured bywithdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults, was 39 tonnes

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Ron Paul: Will the Swiss vote to get their gold back?

Our friends at GATA bring us another informative read: Former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul writes today that he hopes that the people of Switzerland vote to repatriate their gold when they hold a referendum on the issue on November 30. Paul argues that approval of the proposal at referendum will repudiate the financial elites behind unlimited government. He writes: The Swiss people appreciate the work their forefathers put into building up large gold reserves, a respected currency,

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Saturday, September 13, 2014

Schiff - Fantasy About US Recovery Is Not Going To Materialize

Peter Schiff slices and dices the popular economic narrative in this brief, but worthy CNBC interview below.

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Pento - Why Goldman Sachs Is Wrong On Gold

More from Michael Pento in a note to KWN...Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs has recently reiterated its negative view on gold, which it has held for the past year. However, it is now doubling down on this view and advising clients to go short the metal. Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman, wrote, “Our target is really driven by the view that we think that the Fed will ultimately be the dominant force here and

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The Original
Vulture Speculator

Trading gold, silver and mining shares since 1980 with a focus on taking advantage of volatility extremes, Gene Arensberg analyses the markets through a basket of technical and fundamental indicators and shares his findings from time to time here at Got Gold Report. Mr. Arensberg has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones MarketWatch, USA Today and dozens of other news organizations.

"I've been a huge fan of Gene and his amazing work for years..."

Brien Lundin, CEO, Jefferson Financial, Host of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and Publisher of Gold Newsletter


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