How Financial Bubbles Fester And Burst—Even As The Fed Says Not To Worry

1000 david stockmanIn today’s post Wolf Richter offers some solid insights on the dynamics of financial bubbles which merit further comment. The starting point is to recognize that once they gain a head of steam, financial bubbles tend to envelope virtually every nook and cranny of the economy, creating terrible distortions and destructive excesses as they rumble forward. In this instance, Wolf Richter explains how Silicon Valley has once again (like 1999-2000) been transformed into a rollicking capital “burn rate” machine that has spawned a whole economy based on striving for bigger losses, not better profits.

This latter development—- currently exemplified by 44 VC start-up companies in the IPO pipeline with a valuation of more than $1 billion each, despite no earnings and scarce revenues—-is indicative of late stage bubble dynamics. Say January 2000!

Needless to say, our monetary central planners remain hopelessly bubble blind—- still professing to see no significant speculative excesses because they are looking in the wrong place. Janet Yellen, for instance, keeps insisting that stock valuation multiples are still well within “historic ranges”. So do not be troubled.

Well, she’s talking about the global big cap stocks represented in the S&P 500 and is buying the Wall Street ex-items hockey stick that projects $125 per share next year (15.8X) after you exclude recurring “non-recurring” losses; and also after setting aside various asset write-offs that reflect the penchant for capital destruction (job restructurings, plant and store closures and excess purchase price or goodwill charges) that has become epidemic in big company C-suites during the era of bubble finance.

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Koos Jansen: China again buys the dip in gold and silver gets scarcer

1000 koos jansenDeclining gold prices again have pushed demand up on the Shanghai Gold Exchange as China buys the dips, while silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to fall, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today. His analysis is posted at Bullion Star here:

Chinese Gold Demand 39t In Week 36, YTD 1290t

Robust Chinese gold demand is keeping up its pace. Chinese wholesale demand, measured by withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults, was 39 tonnes in week 36 (September 1 - 5). Year to to date 1290 tonnes has been withdrawn from the SGE vaults.  

Blue is weekly withdrawals in Kg, Green is withdrawals year to date in Kg. 

  1000 7

The price of gold is in a down trend since August 12, causing the premium of gold on the SGE to increase. The Chinese are always trying to buy the dips; whenever gold goes down they buy, accumulating at the lowest prices. We can not only see this by SGE premiums moving inversed from the price of gold, but also from SGE withdrawals. The next chart shows the price of the SGE spot contract Au9999 combined with its premium over London spot. Note the inversed correlation between the red and the black line.  

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Pento - Why This Equity Rally is About to End Badly

Pento Michael hand on chinMichael Pento, Pento Portfolio Strategies writes:  The deafening cacophony on Wall Street for the past six years has been since interest rates are at zero percent  that there is no place else to put your money except stocks. For most, it just doesn’t matter that the ratio of Total Market Cap to GDP is 125 percent, which is 15 percent points higher than in 2007 and the highest at any time outside of the tech bubble at the turn of the century. Sovereign bond yields are at record lows across the globe and the strategy for most investors is to ignore anemic economic growth rates and just continue tow more money into the market simply because, “there’s no place else to put your money.”

But the epicenter for this market’s upcoming earthquake will be in the FX market. The US dollar has soared since May due to the overwhelming consensus that while the Fed will be out of the QE business in October and raising rates in 2015, Japan and the Eurozone are headed in the exact opposite direction. The BOJ is already going full throttle with QE and the ECB announced last week that its own asset back security purchase program would begin in October. The Greenback is already up over 5 percent on the DXY in the past four months and a continued increase in the dollar’s values will start to significantly impair the reported earnings on US based multinational corporations. This deflationary force is one reason why stock prices could correct very soon.

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Hamilton - Heavy PM Shorting Bullish

Bear Big Snarling Face onAdam Hamilton writes for Zeal, LLC.  He begins:  Gold and silver have been pounded lower over the past month, contrary to their bullish seasonals.  This selling pressure has come from the usual suspects, American futures speculators.  They’ve been busy aggressively dumping gold and silver futures, particularly on the short side.  But each time they pressed this bet in the past 15 months, gold soon surged higher.  Shorts are bullish since they must soon be covered.

Gold suffered its worst quarter in 93 years in 2013’s second quarter, a nauseating 22.8% loss.  This was triggered by the Fed’s stock-market levitation, which sucked vast amounts of capital out of alternative investments.  Gold plunged early in that catastrophic quarter when major support failed, and again later on Ben Bernanke’s initial QE3-taper scare.  This naturally left gold sentiment overwhelmingly bearish.

 

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Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for September 12

CFTC logoHOUSTON – The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data for the disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) and Legacy “COT” reports for the week ending September 12, 2014.  Our recap of the net positioning for large reporting futures traders is below, compared to the prior week’s data. 

Source: CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver prices.  The positioning and price data is as of the close of trade in New York on Tuesday, September 9, 2014.

20140912 DCOT recap

In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting “longer” and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

 

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Over to you, ECB's Draghi tells euro zone governments...

(Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, fresh from announcing a new batch of stimulus measures a week ago, urged governments to match the ECB's effort with investment and structural reforms to help the flagging euro zone grow.  (GGR comment at end.) 

A day after incoming European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker unveiled his team, Draghi said it may also be useful to have a discussion about the overall fiscal stance of theeuro zone with a view to raising public investment where possible.

Draghi Mario tired eye bags

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), addresses the media during the ECB's monthly news conference in Frankfurt, September 4, 2014.

CREDIT: REUTERS/KAI PFAFFENBACH

 

Draghi stressed that the ECB, which last Thursday cut interest rates to a fresh record low and launched a new scheme to push money into the euro zone economy, could not support the bloc alone.

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Speculator ‘Insurance Shorts’ and Swap Dealer Shorts Likely to Spark a Counter Rally in Gold

Gold bars and coinsHOUSTON – (Got Gold Report) -- Just a little “thinking out loud” on the Managed Money, what I call “insurance short” positions.  Doing so shows a considerable amount of gun powder laying on a large wooden box of short covering dynamite, metaphorically speaking. 

That's because while The Funds piled on new shorts Swap Dealing banks hung onto most of their record high shorts. 

An imbalance is an understatement.  See if you agree…   

Recall that as of August 12, with gold then $1309, Managed Money, aka, The Funds, held a smallish 21,930 short contracts for gold futures on the COMEX bourse. 

Recall that The Funds are trend followers that will generally continue to add to their positions in the direction of the trend until they “break” that trend (or it breaks of its own volition).  Below is (are?)*  the Managed Money data since July 8 for reference. 

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GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar's rise pressures commodities amid Fed anxiety

Wayne Cole reports for Reuters Down Under...

* Risk of hawkish Fed lifts dollar, Treasury yields

* Commodities, carry-linked currencies among the losers

* Asian shares mostly mark time, Tokyo aided by weaker yen

SYDNEY, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was riding high in Asia on Friday as incessant speculation about the outlook for U.S. interest rates undermined commodity prices and unwound leveraged trades in higher-yielding currencies.

Talk the Federal Reserve might take a hawkish turn at its policy meeting next week has seen U.S. Treasury yields steadily creep higher and injected new life into the dollar.

20140911 DXY graph

(Image added by GGR.  U.S. Dollar Index showing that the USD has gone parabolic to the upside.  We believe it has overrun the fundamentals by a goodly measure and is due for a reversion to the mean, at the very least.) 

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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Pilot Gold to be added to the S&P/TSX SmallCap Index

Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG - TSX) (“Pilot Gold” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that as at the close of trading on Friday, September 19, 2014, Pilot Gold will be added to the SP/TSX SmallCap Index. The SP/TSX SmallCap Index serves the dual purpose as a benchmark and as an investable index, and is designed to capture the investment opportunity set for small cap investment managers. Currently there are approximately 210 TSX listed companies which compose

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Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Gartman Letter cites Koos Jansen and Gold Newsletter on Chinese gold demand

GATA shared Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letters, latest: Regarding Chinese gold demand, which we wrote about yesterday, it is open to debate and our old friend, Brien Lundin of the Jefferson Companies in New Orleans, wrote to share his insights. Weve chosen to share them further with our readers, with his approval. Brien wrote: * * * Hi, Dennis: In your letter this morning, you noted that Chinese gold demand was recently reported to be down about

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Doubling Down on Inflation

Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., writes: Fridaysrelease of disappointing August payroll numbers should have been a jarring wake-up call warning Wall Street that the economy has been treading on thin ice. Instead the alarm clock was stuffed under the pillow and Wall Street kept sleeping. The miss was so epic in fact (the 142,000 jobs created was almost 40% below the consensus estimate) that the top analysts on Wall Street did their best to tell us

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No spoofing (really) Adoption of Rule 575 (“Disruptive Practices Prohibited”)

Effective September 15, 2014, The Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (CME), the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. (CBOT), the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX), and the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX), notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the adoption of Rule 575 (“Disruptive Practices Prohibited”). The Exchanges will also adopt the CME Group Market Regulation Advisory Notice RA1405-5, which provides the text of Rule 575 as well as additional regulatory guidance on

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Monday, September 15, 2014

Koos Jansen: China again buys the dip in gold and silver gets scarcer

Declining gold prices again have pushed demand up on the Shanghai Gold Exchange as China buys the dips, while silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to fall, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today. His analysis is posted at Bullion Star here: Chinese Gold Demand 39t In Week 36, YTD 1290t RobustChinese gold demand is keeping up its pace. Chinese wholesale demand, measured bywithdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults, was 39 tonnes

Continue reading "Koos Jansen: China again buys the dip in gold and silver gets scarcer" »

Ron Paul: Will the Swiss vote to get their gold back?

Our friends at GATA bring us another informative read: Former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul writes today that he hopes that the people of Switzerland vote to repatriate their gold when they hold a referendum on the issue on November 30. Paul argues that approval of the proposal at referendum will repudiate the financial elites behind unlimited government. He writes: The Swiss people appreciate the work their forefathers put into building up large gold reserves, a respected currency,

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Saturday, September 13, 2014

Schiff - Fantasy About US Recovery Is Not Going To Materialize

Peter Schiff slices and dices the popular economic narrative in this brief, but worthy CNBC interview below.

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Pento - Why Goldman Sachs Is Wrong On Gold

More from Michael Pento in a note to KWN...Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs has recently reiterated its negative view on gold, which it has held for the past year. However, it is now doubling down on this view and advising clients to go short the metal. Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman, wrote, “Our target is really driven by the view that we think that the Fed will ultimately be the dominant force here and

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Managed Money Shorts Silver Futures

This is the graph for theManaged Money shorts only. It goes with a comment in the public forum section of GGR. Comment the chart goes with: http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2014/09/speculator-insurance-shorts-and-swap-dealer-shorts-likely-to-spark-a-counter-rally-in-gold.html#comment-6a0120a6002285970c01b7c6df5fb2970b

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Friday, September 12, 2014

Cashin – Deflation Keeping Central Bankers Up at Night

The CNBC set up for this brief video of Art Cashin of UBS reads: Discussing pressure in the commodity complex, and whether the market is headed into a deflationary cycle, with Art Cashin of UBS, and CNBC's Bob Pisani. CNBC

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Over to you, ECB's Draghi tells euro zone governments...

(Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, fresh from announcing a new batch of stimulus measures a week ago, urged governments to match the ECBs effort with investment and structural reforms to help the flaggingeuro zonegrow. (GGR comment at end.) A day after incoming European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker unveiled his team, Draghi said it may also be useful to have a discussion about the overall fiscal stance of theeuro zonewith a view to raising public

Continue reading "Over to you, ECB's Draghi tells euro zone governments..." »

Koos Jansen -- India's June Gold Import Highest in 12 Months

Koos Jansen is a keen observer of the precious metals biz in Asia. He writes for BullionStar.com. Koos begins: Despite the fact the new Indian government, led by Narandra Modi since May, hasnt lowered the import duties on both gold and silver, Indians keep on buying precious metals. Despite the fact we already knew this, there was less gold being smuggled into the country and more imported through official channels last June; 77 tonnes were gross imported,

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Thursday, September 11, 2014

Draghi Says Government Spending Could Help Eurozone Economy

Jack Ewing reports for The New York Times ... Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, on Thursday stepped up pressure on countries like Italy to improve the climate for business. But he also said there was room for governments to use public spending to reinvigorate the stalled eurozone economy. Speaking in English in Milan, Mr. Draghi both amplified and clarified themes he raised last month during a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in which

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Belo Sun Closes $6.5 Million Private Placement

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sept. 11, 2014) - Belo Sun Mining Corp. (TSX:BSX) (the Company or Belo Sun) has closed its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing (the Offering) of 30,952,381 common shares of the Company (the Common Shares) at a price of$0.21 per Common Share for proceeds to the Company of$6,500,000. Belo Sun intends to use the proceeds of the Offering to advance the feasibility study and installation license application at the Companys Volta Grande project in

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Columbus Gold Drills 4.48 g/t Gold over 38.6 Meters at Montagne d'Or Gold Deposit

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Sep 11, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- Columbus Gold Corporation (CGT)(otcqx:CBGDF) is pleased to announce an exceptional drill intercept of 4.48 g/t gold over 38.6 meters from its 100%-owned Montagne dOr gold deposit, Paul Isnard Project, in French Guiana. Columbus continues to deliver excellent drill results from Montagne dOr, with this latest result from hole MO-14-167 which is located 570 meters from the recently announced intersection in hole MO-14-164 of 3.15 g/t gold over

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Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Rickards - A Win-Win Scenario for Gold Investors

Jim Rickards writes: Volatility and price drops may be nerve wracking, but the bull market in gold is far from over. In fact, it has barely begun. To understand why, it helps to look at two prior episodes in the relationship of gold and money that are most relevant to today. These episodes were a period of extreme deflation, the 1930s, and a period of extreme inflation, the 1970s. History shows that gold does well in both

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Louis James Interviews Ron Parratt

Casey Research’s Chief Metals and Mining Strategist Louis James interviews Ron Parratt, Executive Chairman of Renaissance Gold Inc. Longtime GGR members will know Ron’s name from our involvement with AuEx Ventures and later Fronteer Gold. We deem the video worthy of our readership’s time. Thanks to the Casey team for the excellent content. Video, about 13 mins. Below the video is a direct link to another interview with Ron Netolitzky, for those with the time and appetite.

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Louis James Interviews Mark O’Dea

Casey Research’s Chief Metals and Mining Strategist Louis James interviews Pilot Gold Chairman Mark O’Dea. Mark is a serially successful dealmaker in the mining biz, including Fronteer Gold, which O’Dea oversaw the sale of to Newmont for $2+ billion in 2011. Video, about 13 mins. Worthwhile for our GGR readership. Thanks to the Casey team for the excellent content.

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Louis James Interviews Andy Wallace

Casey Research’s Chief Metals and Mining Strategist Louis James interviews a living legend in the Nevada gold fields, Andy Wallace. Worthwhile for our readership interested in SRCs. (Small resource companies.) Video, about 14 mins.

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A Historic First: Bank Of Japan Monetizes Debt At Negative Rates

Zero Hedge reports... First, Europe infamously shifted to a NIRP and now Japan has begun NIRP monetization.As WSJ reports, Tuesday marked another milestone in the topsy-turvy world of monetary easing in Japan:The Bank of Japan bought short-term Japanese government debt at a negative yield for the first time. In the understatement of the decade, one Japanese bank strategist noted, The BOJ probably didnt expect this would happen, andT-bill rates staying negative should be a cause of concern

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The Canadian Investor Conference - September 25, 2014

The Canadian Investor Conference is the only place in Canada where the top investment opportunitiesavailable to Canadians hit the big stage. Discovertop performing venture companies andlistentoTorontosthought leaders and most influential investors.

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Pilot Gold reports 6.16 g/t Gold over 45.7 metres at Western Flank target, Kinsley Mountain

Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG - TSX) (“Pilot Gold” or the “Company”) is pleased to report highlights from ongoing drilling and an update on other activities at the Kinsley Mountain Project in eastern Nevada. Since the kick-off of the summer drilling program, a total of 16,772 metres in 16 core and 29 RC holes has been drilled to date, with assays pending for 5 holes.

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CFTC Wins Fraud Trial Against Hunter Wise Precious Metals, Which Must Pay $108 Mln In Penalties

(Kitco News)- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Thursday it won a fraud trial against a Florida-based precious metals firm and its related companies, plus the owners of the firm, with a federal court ordering the companies and owners to pay more than $108 million in restitution and penalties.

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CFTC Says Florida Attorney Aided, Abetted Precious Metals Fraud

Debbie Carlson reports for Kitco. (Kitco News) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission charged Jay Bruce Grossman, a Florida-based attorney, with aiding and abetting multiple clients in their operation of illegal and fraudulent precious metals schemes, in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act, the agency said Tuesday. In a civil complaint in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida filed Tuesday, the CFTC alleges that Grossman was aware clients such as Hunter Wise Commodities

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Fed Proposes New Rule, and Wall St. Banks Feel the Pressure

Nathaniel Popper writes for the New York Times.Wall Street banks scrambled on Tuesday to determine how they might have to adjust their business models to comply with newly proposed rules that could push the banks to downsize. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, a Federal Reserve official, Daniel K. Tarullo, said that the central bank was hoping to tip the regulations against banks that are still thought to be too big to fail, and

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Hugo Chavez’s Absence Felt on Wall Street Bond Desks

Venezuelan bond investors are learning the hard way that Nicolas Maduro is no Hugo Chavez. (Image Hugo Chavez left, Nicolas Maduro right.) Since replacing his late mentor in April 2013, Maduro has overseen the worst bond returns in emerging markets, with the country’s dollar debt posting a loss of 8.7 percent. That’s a complete reversal of the Chavez presidency, when the nation’s debt gained 16 percent annually over 14 years, generating a total return of 692 percent

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Asia stocks take fright on Fed anxiety, dollar near 14-yr highs

Asian shares tumbled on Wednesday as markets wagered the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates earlier than expected, sending US bond yields higher and keeping the dollar well bid near 14-month highs against a basket of major currencies. Some regional tech shares took a hit after Apple Inc stock fell as the initial excitement over its announcement of new products including a watch, larger iPhones and a mobile payment service, quickly evaporated. MSCIs broadest index of Asia-Pacific

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Tuesday, September 09, 2014

S&P 500 Chart Suggestion

Will Alibaba turn out to be a bubble ending signal IPO, sucking the remaining oxygen out of the Feds highly juiced U.S. stock market just as the 66 monthslongmonetary punchbowl is beingremoved? SP 500 chart below - a suggestion, for what it is worth.

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Adamera Minerals - Drilling Update at Oversight Project in Washington State

Vancouver, BC, Sept 9, 2014 – Adamera Minerals Corp. (TSX V: ADZ) has completed 9 shallow drill holes on the 100 % owned Oversight project in Washington State. Five of the holes intersected the mineralized horizon which ranges from 2.5 to 6 metres in thickness. Gold assays for the intersections are pending. The Oversight mineralized horizon appears to be an extension of the adjacent Overlook deposit as it is in roughly the same stratigraphic position and exhibits

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Columbus Gold Drills 3.15 g/t Gold over 33.5 Meters at Montagne d'Or Gold Deposit

Vancouver, BC, Canada, September 9, 2014. Columbus Gold Corporation (CGT: TSX-V, CBGDF: OTCQX) (Columbus Gold)is pleased to announce drill results from an additional 12 holes of its 130-hole, 25,700 meter Phase II resource development diamond drilling campaign currently underway at its 100%-owned Montagne dOr gold deposit, Paul Isnard Project, in French Guiana. Seventy-six (76) drill holes (106 to 178 and 180 to 182) have been completed, for a total of 12,975 meters, to date.

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The Original
Vulture Speculator

Trading gold, silver and mining shares since 1980 with a focus on taking advantage of volatility extremes, Gene Arensberg analyses the markets through a basket of technical and fundamental indicators and shares his findings from time to time here at Got Gold Report. Mr. Arensberg has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones MarketWatch, USA Today and dozens of other news organizations.

"I've been a huge fan of Gene and his amazing work for years..."

Brien Lundin, CEO, Jefferson Financial, Host of the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and Publisher of Gold Newsletter


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